Sunday-Monday Snowstorm Threat

As we mentioned in the previous blog, we are monitoring a potential significant snowstorm for Connecticut starting late this weekend. A lot has changed in the past 24 hours with regards to this threat and it's potential impacts across the state. Here's what we know as of Friday Morning, February 20th.

Computer model guidance has pushed the storm closer to the coast and is now favoring a track that would bring heavy snow and wind across the state. There are still large model differences at this time but consensus is growing for at least some plowable snow. The American model (GFS) is now pushing a significant to potentially major snowstorm while the European model (ECMWF) is further offshore, but still has a moderate snowfall. As a whole all of forecasting guidance is beginning to lean heavily in the direction for snow in Connecticut with the threat of a whiff nearly off the table.

This storm is still about 60 hours away so a lot can still change and develop with regards to track and intensity of the storm. While the possibility of a miss is shrinking rapidly, it is still to early to talk exact amounts of snow, but the ceiling is high for a big storm. The timing for snowfall is centered around Sunday night into the first half of Monday. Snow could begin as early as Sunday afternoon. Expect travel impacts for the Monday morning commute.

What we can say for sure is that this appears to be an all-snow storm with plenty of cold air being filtered down from Canada thanks to a large area of high pressure. If the storm tracks close enough, wind will also be an issue with blowing and drifting snow. The best chance for widespread heavy snow is closer to the shore and eastern areas.

This situation is still changing and developing so it is still possible a lighter graze can happen if the storm slides back southeast.

We will have a full update Saturday morning complete with timing, impacts and snowfall maps.

Northeast Snowstorm Overview & Low Pressure Track

-JDJ