Weekend Snowstorm Sunday Jan 25 - Live Updates

Friday 1/23 8:00PM Update

A Major Winter Storm is developing over the South Central Plains today and will gradually move eastward. This storm will bring substantial wintry precipitation with severe effects across much of the central and eastern half of nation.

A Winter Storm Warning is in effect for the entire region for 8-16" of snow. Confidence is now high on a significant to major snowfall event over the Northeast Sunday into Monday. Most areas will see at least 8" with around a foot or more likely, especially in the interior with some spots seeing as much as 16".

Northeast Storm Overview

The general forecast has not changed from 24 hours ago. However models are honing in on a track that is a bit closer to the coast which brings with it the threat of heavy snow changing to a mixture of sleet and possibly freezing rain. The greatest threat for this right now is the CT shoreline down through the City and NE NJ. There is the possibility that warmer air may make it as far north as RT 84 in Connecticut. The earlier the transition to sleet the less accumulations would be, we would see closer to 8" rather than 16". We are still 36 hours away from the start of the storm so small changes to the forecast are still possible and we will keep you updated.

Regardless of any changeover to mixed precipitation, the damage will mostly be done by then with several inches of snow. We will issue a final update with snowfall forecast maps tomorrow.

Detailed Breakdown

Timing: Guidance is split on start time, most guidance starts Sunday morning and gradually increase intensity by midday. However, some guidance doesn't have the snow starting until Sunday afternoon. We are going with a start time between 6am and 10am on Sunday across the area.

Mixing concern: As expected the projected track of our storm has shifted significantly north the past 72 hours. However, some models are far north enough to introduce some sleet and freezing rain at the tail end of the storm. Temperatures will be in the teens and 20s throughout the storm, no plain rain is expected. Regardless of mixing 8"+ is very likely for the entire region with 12"+ likely if mixing stays far enough south of the region.

Prolonged snow into Monday: Some guidance has shown the potential for additional energy phasing into Sunday's storm. This would prolong the snow through Sunday night into Monday with another several inches possible. This is a low probability outcome, however it would result in a high end snow storm with up to 16" or more possible in this scenario.

Snowfall Forecast

Southern New England & Tri-State Area Snowfall Forecast

Connecticut Snowfall Forecast

-JDJ

Wednesday 1/21 7:00AM Update (Previous Post)

Good morning. We are tracking what looks to be a Major Winter Storm across a large part of the country. The Northeastern US will be directly in the storms path. As we discussed over the last few days, these storms like to trend north as we get closer. The north trend has continued the last 24 hours which now brings major snow potential into the Tri-State through Connecticut and Southern New England.

All of our computer models are in surprisingly great agreement that heavy snow will spread into the region early Sunday morning and continue throughout the day and into Monday as there is also good agreement that the snow will be prolonged by more energy phasing into the storm creating a secondary low pressure off the east coast Monday. Odds for 8" or more are impressively high for 96 hours out.

What has caused this north trend? Well a few things..

1. Better phasing of energy over the Rocky Mountains forces more ridging in the East which allows the storm to gain latitude (come north).

2. The arctic cold press is trending a bit less inhibitive and quicker. The less the cold and press and quicker it moves east, the more this storm can come north.

   
   

Northeast Overview for January 25-26th, 2026

Connecticut Snowfall Potential

Tuesday 1/21 2:45PM (Previous Post)

This blog will offer live updates on the potential for a significant winter storm projected to affect much of the Southern, Central, and Eastern United States. Connecticut is positioned on the northern boundary of this storm, with accumulating snow currently anticipated. However, the extent to which the major snowstorm impacts will extend northward remains uncertain. For a more comprehensive analysis of the overall pattern and a retrospective on similar storms to this weekend's potential snowstorm, please refer to yesterday's blog post.

Here's what we are confident in as of 2:45pm Tuesday:

A significant winter storm is anticipated to develop on Friday as subtropical moisture converges with Arctic air over the South Central United States. Regions unaccustomed to heavy winter precipitation are expected to experience substantial accumulations of snow, sleet, and ice. These potentially crippling amounts of winter precipitation are likely to affect areas from Texas and Oklahoma, extending eastward through the northern Gulf states and into the southern Mid-Atlantic by Saturday. From there the forecast starts to diverge a bit, although there is above average agreement for this storm still being five days away.

As of yesterday's update the AI computer models were leading the way showing the storm potential. Timing has slowed a bit as now we are looking at a Sunday into Monday storm. However, there is now multi-model support for significant snow to turn north east from the Mid-Atlantic into at least southern portions of New England (Connecticut included). Here is the European Ensemble mean snow forecast which is the average of 51 variations of the European model, this output shows 40-50% odds of 6" or more of snow in Connecticut at a 10:1 ratio. Odds this high are uncommon at this lead time, with the arctic cold overhead snow ratios would be higher than your typical 10:1 which would inflate these numbers even more. Stakes are high with this one, we will keep you informed with the latest.

-JDJ