Weekend Snowstorm Potential - Live Updates

This blog will offer live updates on the potential for a significant winter storm projected to affect much of the Southern, Central, and Eastern United States. Connecticut is positioned on the northern boundary of this storm, with accumulating snow currently anticipated. However, the extent to which the major snowstorm impacts will extend northward remains uncertain. For a more comprehensive analysis of the overall pattern and a retrospective on similar storms to this weekend's potential snowstorm, please refer to yesterday's blog post.

Here's what we are confident in as of 2:45pm Tuesday:

A significant winter storm is anticipated to develop on Friday as subtropical moisture converges with Arctic air over the South Central United States. Regions unaccustomed to heavy winter precipitation are expected to experience substantial accumulations of snow, sleet, and ice. These potentially crippling amounts of winter precipitation are likely to affect areas from Texas and Oklahoma, extending eastward through the northern Gulf states and into the southern Mid-Atlantic by Saturday. From there the forecast starts to diverge a bit, although there is above average agreement for this storm still being five days away.

As of yesterday's update the AI computer models were leading the way showing the storm potential. Timing has slowed a bit as now we are looking at a Sunday into Monday storm. However, there is now multi-model support for significant snow to turn north east from the Mid-Atlantic into at least southern portions of New England (Connecticut included). Here is the European Ensemble mean snow forecast which is the average of 51 variations of the European model, this output shows 40-50% odds of 6" or more of snow in Connecticut at a 10:1 ratio. Odds this high are uncommon at this lead time, with the arctic cold overhead snow ratios would be higher than your typical 10:1 which would inflate these numbers even more. Stakes are high with this one, we will keep you informed with the latest.