Snow to rain and wind Sunday PM into Monday AM

Our active weather pattern continues as another Nor'Easter will affect Connecticut Sunday PM into Monday AM. Our weather pattern will remain cold and stormy through the extended forecast.

Our upcoming storm would be a blockbuster snowstorm if it tracked a bit east of the current forecast. We will be on the warmer side of the storm causing a brief period of snow to change to rain for most of the state. We do have a very cold airmass over the state leading into the storm, this may keep the cold air lingering for a bit longer in northern CT, however most will not escape the rain and wind Monday morning.

Our forecast as of now is for snow to develop from south to north between 9-11pm Sunday night. Snow will quickly change to sleet and rain from south to north. A few inches of snow is possible north of the merritt before the changeover, several inches of snow is possible in the NW hills where the cold will hang around the longest.

What can go possibly change with our forecast?

Right now the European model and our High Resolution Rapid Refresh model are on the colder side of guidance. Showing 3-6" of snow around the I-84 corridor, with 6"+ in Litchfield county. If a solution like this verifies, snow removal would be an issue, as the rain would make the snow very heavy to move. These models also keep temperatures on the colder side only rising into the 30s, then refreezing at night. Again this is worst case scenario, however we think there is a 1 in 4 chance of this verifying. It is worth noting, even the coldest guidance has almost no snow falling around the merritt parkway or I-95.

Here is our forecast map for the storm

STORM SUMMARY

Snow breaks out between 9-11pm and changes to rain quickly at the shore, we expect a changeover by 4am along I-84 and points north and west. We then expect a period of very strong winds and heavy rain between 4am and 8am leading to scattered power outages. Rain total of 1-1.5" are expected across much of the state causing some poor drainage flooding issues with the snow pack covering storm drains in parts of the state. The rest of the day should be dry with temperatures in the 30s, with some scattered snow squalls possible in the evening.