Confidence increasing in first plowable snow Friday AM.

Confidence has increased in a widespread snow event Friday morning, however plenty of uncertainty remains about how much snow, possible mixing, and where the heaviest axis of snow will be.

Here are the three scenarios...

1. The storm tracks within 50-100 miles of Connecticut. This would confine the heaviest snow to NW CT and bring mixing issues to areas south and east of I-84.

2. The storm tracks 150-200 miles east of Connecticut. This would bring a swath of heavy snow through the majority of the state, several inches would accumulate Friday AM.

3. The storm tracks 250+ miles to the east of Connecticut. This would spare most of the state from the heaviest snow although a few inches would still fall, with several inches possible in eastern CT.

All 3 scenarios have equal chances of verifying as of this morning Tuesday January 4th, 8am.

Here is a map showing the uncertainty. This is the most recent European ensemble output. It shows 51 different scenarios for Friday morning 7am. Notice all the L's (low pressure) they are all over the map, we like to see the L's clustered in one area to have more confidence in a precise forecast. Stay tuned for our next update around 2:30pm.